PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY DECISION
Do You Know How a Project Should Really Begin?
A project begins with the definition of its future, not with its schedule!
In Project Management by Decision (PMD), I propose a fundamental change in how we understand projects. Before defining activities, resources, schedules, and deliverables, we need to answer two essential questions: Which futures are possible, and which futures do we want to create? Possible Futures represent the different states a project may reach, considering its conditions, constraints, uncertainties, opportunities, and decisions. Desired Futures represent what we intend to achieve: the results, benefits, and transformations that justify the project's existence. However, not everything we desire is necessarily possible, just as not everything possible corresponds to what we desire. It is precisely within this distinction that the real challenge of decision-making begins.
By comparing these futures, we initiate the Engineering of Decision Networks, identifying the existing possibilities, the transformations required, and the decisions that must be structured within a Dynamic Network of Interdependent Decisions. We then establish a Reference Trajectory, representing the decision evolution considered appropriate for achieving the Desired Futures. Throughout this trajectory, three fundamental conditions may be identified: Alignment, when the project's evolution remains consistent with the reference trajectory; Decision Drift, when negative deviations progressively compromise the intended outcomes; and Decision Superation, when positive deviations make it possible to achieve conditions and results superior to those originally envisioned. PMD, therefore, seeks not only to prevent negative deviations but also to recognize opportunities to expand the value and future possibilities of a project.
From Desired Futures to Decision Trajectories
Figure — Alignment, Decision Drift, and Decision Superation within the Possible Futures Space.
The figure illustrates how a project, starting from the same initial situation, may evolve along different trajectories. The blue line represents the Reference Trajectory, oriented toward the Desired Futures; the green line represents Decision Superation, when new conditions make it possible to achieve superior futures; and the red line represents Decision Drift, when the project's evolution compromises the intended outcomes. These trajectories are not immutable: decisions, changes in assumptions, dependencies, and structural conditions can continuously modify the available paths. Structural Deterioration may silently reduce these possibilities, even when traditional schedule and cost indicators remain favorable.
Physics offers an interesting analogy for understanding this phenomenon. In Einstein's general theory of relativity, the distribution of mass and energy is associated with the curvature of spacetime, influencing the trajectories of physical bodies. In PMD, I use this image as a conceptual analogy: decisions can reshape the Possible Futures Space, altering the trajectories available to a project. Some decisions expand possibilities, while others restrict alternatives or make certain futures unreachable. Decision Curvature expresses these changes in possible trajectories, while the deformation of the Possible Futures Space represents changes in the set of possibilities itself. This does not mean literally applying the equations of physics to project management. Rather, it provides a way to understand how the structure of decisions influences which futures can be reached.
In PMD, therefore, a project is not merely a collection of activities intended to produce deliverables, but a Dynamic Network of Interdependent Decisions that continuously transforms its possible futures. Decision Governance monitors this evolution, verifies the continuing validity of assumptions, identifies signals of Decision Drift, recognizes opportunities for Decision Superation, and enables decisions to be reassessed and reconfigured when necessary. Schedules remain indispensable, but project success requires something more: preserving and, whenever possible, expanding the project's capacity to achieve its Desired Futures.
After all, what is the value of delivering a project on time, within budget, and with every activity completed if it has lost the ability to produce the future that justified its existence?
The concepts presented in this publication are developed in the book Project Management by Decision, by Walter Afonso Filho, now available on Amazon, together with its original Portuguese edition, Gestão de Projetos por Decisão.
Walter Afonso Filho
President | IVEXSI Decision Networks Institute
